As former U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House in early 2025, experts are urging Taiwan to refine its approach to its relationship with the United States. In discussions during a recent forum held in Taiwan, scholars and foreign affairs experts cautioned that Taiwan’s traditional methods of engagement with Washington may no longer suffice under Trump’s leadership, particularly given his “America First” stance and shifting priorities.
Key Insights from Taiwanese Experts on U.S.-Taiwan Relations
With the prospect of a second Trump presidency, Taiwan must navigate a new political landscape, experts warned. The America First policy, which has been a cornerstone of Trump’s first term, prioritizes U.S. national interests over traditional alliances or shared democratic values. This new dynamic demands a more strategically refined approach from Taiwan, they suggested.
Former Legislator Lo Chih-cheng of the Institute for National Policy Research emphasized that Trump’s policies are grounded in realist nationalism, meaning Taiwan will need to align its discussions with the U.S. based on clear mutual interests rather than shared democratic values. Lo argued that Taiwan must frame its priorities in terms of U.S. national interests to gain the attention of the Trump administration.
“Taiwan must demonstrate how our national interests overlap with or enhance U.S. interests. Every conversation must translate into terms of ‘interests’ so Trump will understand it,” Lo said.
“A Bumpy Road” Ahead for Taiwan-U.S. Relations
Chen Ming-chi, an associate professor at National Tsing Hua University, predicted that Taiwan will face “a bumpy road” over the next four years when engaging with the U.S. under Trump. He advised Taiwan to align itself with Trump’s narrative, adopting a tone of humility and emphasizing how Taiwanese investments in the U.S. can contribute to America’s greatness.
“When Taiwanese companies invest in the U.S., they should express appreciation for the opportunity and emphasize how they contribute to ‘making America great again,’” Chen said.
This “humble stance,” he argued, would help Taiwan avoid confrontations and position the country in a way that minimizes friction with the U.S.
The Evolving Nature of U.S. Foreign Policy under Trump
Lo foresees that Trump’s second term will be marked by greater assertiveness, a more populist tone, and an increased focus on unpredictability. In this new era, Taiwan will need to adopt a more nuanced approach in dealing with Washington. Lo pointed to Taiwan’s delayed response in sending a congratulatory message to Trump after his 2024 election win as an example of missteps that could be avoided in the future.
“Taiwan was the last among Asian countries to congratulate Trump. While we didn’t need to rush, we certainly didn’t need to be last. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines were ahead of us,” Lo noted.
Adjusting to Trump’s “Language” in Diplomacy
Lai I-chung, President of the Prospect Foundation, emphasized that Taiwan’s diplomatic engagement will need to “tune into the correct frequency” with Trump. While the Biden administration and Taiwan have worked closely on shared values like democracy and international cooperation (such as supporting Ukraine against Russia), Trump’s approach is starkly different.
“With Trump coming into power, Taiwan needs to speak a different language. It’s a reality that we must adjust to,” Lai said.
This change in diplomatic tone is particularly important because Trump’s foreign policy will likely be less centered on shared democratic values and more focused on economic and geopolitical interests.
Collaborating with Like-Minded Nations
As Taiwan works to ensure its interests are represented in the U.S., experts agree that Taiwan may struggle to persuade the U.S. on its own, given Trump’s historical dismissal of Taiwan’s importance in U.S.-China relations. During his first term, Trump likened Taiwan to “the tip of a pen” and China to “the desk.” This sentiment makes it harder for Taiwan to convince the U.S. on key issues such as defense and economic cooperation.
Lo Chih-cheng suggested that Taiwan should strengthen its diplomatic efforts by working more closely with like-minded countries such as Japan, South Korea, and European Union nations, which may have greater leverage with the U.S. on Taiwan-related issues.
“Diplomatic efforts with Japan and Europe are also efforts toward the U.S.,” Lo said. “By aligning with these countries, Taiwan can collectively persuade the U.S. on critical matters.”
Additionally, India could play an important role. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has increasingly cooperated with the U.S. and has developed a strong rapport with Trump. As Trump returns to power, Taiwan should consider India as a potential partner in navigating U.S.-Taiwan relations.
The Role of Prime Minister Modi in U.S.-Taiwan Diplomacy
Lai highlighted India’s strategic importance, noting that Modi and Trump shared a good relationship during the former president’s tenure. With Modi still in office, Taiwan could benefit from leveraging India’s influence to engage with Trump more effectively.
“Modi’s familiarity with Trump could create an opportunity for Taiwan to leverage India’s position in discussions on foreign policy,” Lai concluded.
Key Takeaways from Taiwan’s Strategy for Trump’s Second Term
| Aspect | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| Taiwan-U.S. Diplomacy | Focus on shared national interests, using Trump’s language of “America First.” |
| Engagement Strategy | Adopt a more humble and strategic tone when investing in the U.S. |
| Diplomatic Partnerships | Strengthen ties with Japan, South Korea, the EU, and India to influence U.S. policy. |
| Trump’s Approach | Be prepared for a more assertive and populist foreign policy stance. |
| Future Challenges | Expect a difficult road ahead and adjust strategies accordingly. |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What is the main advice for Taiwan’s approach to the U.S. under Trump’s second term?
Experts advise Taiwan to adopt a more refined approach, focusing on aligning its national interests with U.S. priorities rather than emphasizing shared democratic values.
2. Why is Taiwan’s stance considered important under Trump’s leadership?
Trump’s “America First” policy places U.S. national interests above all else, meaning Taiwan must carefully align its policies with U.S. strategic goals to maintain a favorable relationship.
3. How can Taiwan improve its diplomatic efforts with the U.S.?
Taiwan is advised to work closely with like-minded countries like Japan and Europe to collectively persuade the U.S., as these nations may have more influence over U.S. decision-making.
4. What role does India play in Taiwan-U.S. relations?
India, under Prime Minister Modi, could serve as a key ally for Taiwan in influencing U.S. foreign policy, as Modi shares a strong rapport with Trump.
5. What challenges will Taiwan face under Trump’s second presidency?
Taiwan will face challenges in persuading the U.S. on key issues, especially given Trump’s past rhetoric on Taiwan, and will need to carefully manage its diplomatic strategies.
