Taipei, Taiwan – With the election of former U.S. President Donald Trump to a second term, Taiwanese scholars are expressing concern and uncertainty about how Washington will handle its relationship with Taiwan over the next four years. The shift in leadership raises questions about the future of U.S. policy toward Taiwan, which is expected to be “unpredictable,” according to local experts.
Scholars from leading Taiwanese universities argue that Trump’s approach, which was often marked by abrupt shifts and lack of predictability during his first term, will likely continue into his second. Taiwan could face a period of “surprises and accidents,” especially with tensions rising between the U.S. and China.
Trump’s Approach to Taiwan: Continuity or Change?
Under Donald Trump, the U.S. maintained its stance on Taiwan, largely adhering to the One China policy, but with a more confrontational and unpredictable style. This approach left Taiwan and its partners in the region unsure of Washington’s next move. Scholars agree that Trump’s second term could bring more unilateral actions, which could complicate Taiwan’s security situation.
Professor Kuo Yu-jen’s View: “Arbitrary and Unpredictable”
Professor Kuo Yu-jen, the chair of the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies at National Sun Yat-sen University, described Trump’s first term as having a “more arbitrary” approach toward Taiwan, compared to other U.S. administrations. He noted that Trump’s style was more unpredictable, and Taiwan, along with other U.S. partners, would likely face “many surprises” as the U.S. navigates the complexities of cross-strait relations.
“The U.S. approach will be unpredictable, with many accidents and surprises,” Kuo said. “This will make Taiwan’s position harder to define.”
Professor Li Da-jung: A Bargaining Chip with Beijing?
Professor Li Da-jung, director of Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, emphasized the difficulty in assessing Trump’s position on Taiwan. During his first term, Trump used Taiwan as part of a bargaining chip in his trade war with China. His policy seemed to prioritize economic interests, while still officially adhering to the One China policy.
“Trump is likely to continue using Taiwan as leverage in dealings with Beijing,” Li suggested, noting that the future of U.S. policy on Taiwan might oscillate between clarity and ambiguity.
Professor Wang Hung-jen: A Shift Toward Unilateralism
According to Professor Wang Hung-jen of National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan may face a more unilateral U.S. approach under Trump’s second term. Unlike the current administration under Joe Biden, which emphasizes multilateral cooperation and international alliances, Trump is expected to prioritize direct confrontation and assert U.S. dominance through unilateral actions.
“The U.S. will expect Taiwan to meet Trump’s demands on military and economic fronts,” Wang said, highlighting Taiwan’s semiconductor industry as a significant point of focus for the U.S.
Military and Economic Concerns: Taiwan’s Strategic Importance
Security in the Taiwan Strait
With Taiwan’s semiconductor industry being one of the most critical global assets, its importance to the U.S. will continue to drive policy. Professor Wang pointed out that after Trump takes office, Taiwan might face friction with its allies, especially in terms of security in the Taiwan Strait. Trump’s policies could lead to challenges in the internationalization of Taiwan’s security, especially if the U.S. takes a more aggressive stance toward China.
Self-Defense and Taiwan’s Role
Chen Shih-min, an associate professor of political science at National Taiwan University, emphasized that Taiwan must demonstrate its commitment to self-defense and show the U.S. that it is willing to shoulder more responsibilities. Taiwan’s military readiness will be crucial to its relationship with Washington, particularly as the U.S. weighs how much support to offer Taiwan in the face of rising Chinese pressure.
What Does Trump’s Return Mean for Taiwan’s International Standing?
The unpredictability of Trump’s second term presents several risks for Taiwan, including potential trade disruptions and diplomatic tensions. However, Taiwan’s future may also depend on its ability to adapt to an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment, navigating the complex dynamics of U.S.-China relations while ensuring its security and economic vitality.
FAQs: Taiwan’s Relations with the U.S. Under Trump’s Second Term
1. What is Trump’s stance on Taiwan in his second term?
Experts suggest that Trump’s stance on Taiwan will remain unpredictable. While he may maintain the U.S.’s commitment to the One China policy, Taiwan is likely to be used as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with China, making his approach difficult to predict.
2. Will Taiwan’s relationship with the U.S. change under Trump’s second term?
It’s likely that Taiwan will experience a more unilateral approach from the U.S., with direct confrontations expected on military and economic matters, especially related to Taiwan’s semiconductor industry.
3. What role does Taiwan play in U.S.-China relations?
Taiwan is a crucial player in U.S.-China relations, especially due to its strategic importance in the semiconductor industry. The U.S. is likely to continue using Taiwan as leverage in its economic and diplomatic dealings with China.
4. What are the risks for Taiwan under Trump’s second term?
Taiwan faces risks of geopolitical instability, especially in the Taiwan Strait, and trade disruptions if Trump escalates tensions with China. Taiwan’s relationship with its allies could also be strained due to Trump’s preference for unilateral action.
5. How should Taiwan prepare for a second Trump term?
Taiwan needs to focus on self-defense and military preparedness, showing the U.S. that it is willing to take on a more significant role in its own security. Additionally, Taiwan should be prepared for economic challenges, especially in its critical semiconductor industry.
Conclusion: Taiwan’s Uncertain Future in U.S.-China Relations
Taiwan’s position in the U.S.-China rivalry will continue to evolve under Donald Trump’s second term. The unpredictable nature of his foreign policy and his emphasis on unilateral action could lead to significant shifts in Taiwan’s economic and security dynamics. Taiwan must navigate these uncertainties carefully, strengthening its self-defense and economic capabilities while preparing for the potential challenges posed by geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts.
