Taiwan Must Withstand a Chinese Blockade for a Month Before U.S. Support, U.S. War Game Simulation Shows
In a dramatic simulation conducted by the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), experts determined that Taiwan would need to endure a Chinese blockade and invasion for at least one month before the United States could successfully send reinforcements. This revelation, made public during a congressional briefing on Wednesday, underscores the immense challenges both Taiwan and the U.S. would face in the event of a Chinese military aggression against the island nation.
The simulation, part of a broader defense industrial base exercise, suggests that Taiwan would have to rely on its existing military capabilities for a prolonged period, potentially up to two months, as Chinese forces rapidly encircle the island. This stark assessment highlights the urgency of strengthening Taiwan’s defense capabilities, particularly through the acquisition of advanced anti-ship missiles and other deterrents.
Key Insights from the U.S. War Game
The war game conducted by CSIS experts and U.S. lawmakers examined several scenarios for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Mark Cancian, a defense expert at CSIS, pointed out several critical factors that would make Taiwan a difficult target for China. Taiwan’s mountainous terrain and narrow coastal regions present a unique set of challenges for Chinese forces, forcing them to choose between a difficult northern invasion or a southern assault with the added complexity of advancing through Taiwan’s rugged interior.
“Taiwan is a difficult island to capture due to its geography,” Cancian explained. “China faces a tough choice: invade the north, where Taiwan’s most substantial defenses are, or attack the south, where it is easier to land but much harder to secure.”
The Northern and Southern Invasion Scenarios
According to the simulation, if China chooses to invade the northern part of Taiwan, it would face intense resistance, especially near Taipei, the island’s capital. A full-scale battle outside the city would likely result in significant losses for China, but Taiwan would also suffer heavy casualties.
On the other hand, a southern invasion, though easier to execute, would involve protracted fighting as Chinese forces would need to push northward against entrenched Taiwanese defenses. The simulation predicted that the U.S. and Japan would attempt to sink Chinese amphibious ships during this phase, but such a strategy would come with high costs.
“In most of the simulations, we won that race to sink the Chinese ships, but at a very high cost,” Cancian said, noting that the outcome was not guaranteed and would depend heavily on the speed and effectiveness of U.S. and allied responses.
Taiwan’s Need for Anti-Ship Missiles
One of the most critical takeaways from the simulation is the importance of anti-ship missiles in Taiwan’s defense strategy. Mark Cancian emphasized the need for Taiwan to enhance its missile capabilities, particularly through the acquisition of Harpoon missiles. He suggested that “500 Harpoon missiles” could provide Taiwan with a powerful deterrent against Chinese amphibious assaults and naval blockades.
These Harpoon missiles would be stationed in Taiwan and mounted on mobile launchers, making them highly effective against Chinese naval forces without the need for direct U.S. military involvement on the ground. The long-range anti-ship missiles would significantly increase Taiwan’s ability to defend its waters and deter a Chinese invasion.
The U.S. and Taiwan: A Delicate Window for Support
Another significant insight from the war game is the timeframe within which the U.S. could provide support. As Chinese forces would likely impose a naval and air blockade around Taiwan, the U.S. would struggle to provide reinforcements during the initial stages of the conflict. U.S. experts estimated that it would take at least three to four weeks before airlifts or sealifts could successfully deliver munitions and forces to Taiwan.
“Taiwan would have to fight for at least the first month, and potentially the first two months, with whatever it starts out with,” said Cancian. This highlights the importance of Taiwan being well-prepared to defend itself in the critical early stages of an invasion.
Taiwan’s Recent Harpoon Missile Purchases
In response to growing concerns about Chinese aggression, Taiwan has already taken steps to bolster its defense capabilities. Taiwan has recently purchased 400 land-launched Harpoon missiles from the United States, with the first batch expected to be delivered by 2026. These missiles are part of a broader strategy to fortify Taiwan’s coastal defenses and enhance its deterrence capabilities.
In addition, Taiwan has reportedly received some of these missiles already, with more to be delivered in the coming years. This is part of a broader effort to ensure that Taiwan’s defenses remain robust in the face of escalating tensions with China.
Strategic Considerations: U.S. and China’s Military Disparities
Despite Taiwan’s increased defense efforts, U.S. lawmakers expressed concern about the imbalance in military capabilities between China and the United States. U.S. Representative Rob Wittman highlighted the disparity in shipbuilding capacity between the two nations, noting that China has a shipbuilding capacity 232 times greater than the U.S.
“The U.S. cannot catch up to China’s industrial capacity by 2027,” Wittman warned, suggesting that the U.S. should prioritize “contingency strategies” and focus on more accessible defense systems rather than expensive, advanced weapon platforms.
FAQ: Taiwan’s Defense and the U.S. War Game Simulation
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| What did the U.S. war game reveal about Taiwan’s defense? | Taiwan would need to withstand a Chinese blockade for at least one month before the U.S. could provide effective reinforcements. |
| Why is Taiwan difficult for China to invade? | Taiwan’s mountainous terrain, narrow coastal regions, and well-defended northern areas make an invasion difficult for China. |
| What role do Harpoon missiles play in Taiwan’s defense? | Harpoon missiles would be a key deterrent against Chinese amphibious forces, enhancing Taiwan’s ability to defend its shores. |
| What is the timeline for U.S. support if China invades Taiwan? | U.S. reinforcements would likely take three to four weeks to arrive, meaning Taiwan must hold out during the initial stages of the conflict. |
| What is Taiwan’s current missile defense capability? | Taiwan has purchased 400 Harpoon missiles from the U.S., with deliveries expected to be completed by 2026. |
The Strategic Implications for Taiwan’s Future Defense
The findings from the U.S. war game simulation underscore the need for Taiwan to further strengthen its defense infrastructure and enhance its self-reliance in the face of potential Chinese aggression. The window for U.S. support is narrow, and Taiwan must be prepared to endure the initial stages of conflict with its own resources. Strategic investments in anti-ship missiles, alongside continued military collaboration with the U.S. and Japan, will be crucial in ensuring Taiwan’s security in the years ahead.
The evolving military dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region highlight the importance of contingency planning and defense preparedness, not only for Taiwan but for its allies as well. The war game simulations provide a stark reminder that, in a potential conflict, Taiwan’s fate could hinge on how effectively it can defend itself in the critical early stages of an invasion.
